Completed Projects

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Exposure Growth in China and India

Completed date: March 2013

Project Lead
Shinichi Kamiya

Collaborators
George Zanjani, K. Ramachandran, Yunjie Sun

Project Description
The Asia-Pacific region is currently the only region that shows stable growth in insurance business in recent years (Premium increase by 6.4% in 2008 and 2.8% in 2009 (SwissRe Report)). The market, if it is measured by exposure, is growing even faster in large countries, China and India, in that the real GDP growth rates of these countries are both 10.3% in 2010 (IMF). Considering that the population in China is 1.3 billion and that in India is 1.2 billion (relative to 300 million in US) and that current low penetration rates (premiums as % of GDP) of non-life insurance, 1.6% in China and 0.6 in India (4.5% in US), it is reasonable to predict that the rapidly developing Asia-Pacific region will be the key non-life insurance market of the future. In the area of forecasting insurance market growth, we can draw on research on insurance market development in the United States and Europe, where long time series of data are available, a key challenge will come in forecasting the extent to which Asian countries will grow and the way in which it will develop. This project looks at key non-life lines of business in the China and India markets providing insights on the determinants of exposure growth of the key markets, and the impact of the determinants on the exposure growth.

Completed Research Report


Working Paper

  • Shinichi Kamiya, (2015), Credit Crunch and Insurance Consumption: The Aftermath of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, working paper, Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University.  This paper was motivated by the project above but not directly related to China and India​.
    Download from SSRN

Industry Articles


  • SCOR Papers: Non-Life Insurance Market Growth in China: Can we predict it?
    April 2013, SCOR papers
    Download PDF

  • Non-life insurance market growth in China – Can we predict it?
    April 2013, Asia Insurance Review
    Download PDF

​Conference Presentations

  • ​​​​Credit Crunch and Insurance Consumption: The Aftermath of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, ​2015 American Risk and Insurance Association (ARIA) Meeting​Shinichi Kamiya​, August 2015
  • Catastrophes and Development of Non-life Insurance Market: A Cross-Country Analysis, Insurance Risk and Finance Research Conference, Singapore, Shinichi Kamiya, June 2014
  • Effect of Banking Crisis: Evidence from Non-life Insurance Consumption, Risk Theory Society Meeting, Munich, Germany, Shinichi Kamiya, George Zanjani and Jackie Li, May 2014
  • Effect of Banking Crisis: Evidence from Non-life Insurance Consumption, ASSA Meetings - Allied Social Science Associations, Philadelphia, USA, Shinichi Kamiya, George Zanjani and Jackie Li, Jan 2014
  • Effect of Banking Crisis: Evidence from Non-life Insurance Consumption, ARIA Annual Meeting - American Risk and Insurance Association, Washington, USA, Shinichi Kamiya, George Zanjani and Jackie Li, August 2013
  • Exposure Growth in China and India, Insurance Risk Research Conference, Singapore, Shinichi Kamiya, June 2012

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